Technology is the category where the shape of the line is most often recognisable and least often predictable. Adoption curves take years to start, then move fast, then slow down as the market fills. Collapses look like adoption curves played backwards — and both happen in the same chart bank.
Extraplot's tech charts combine public datasets with carefully sourced company and industry figures. They cover consumer products, platforms, infrastructure and a few formats that did not survive, because the interesting question is not only what grew. It is what stopped.
What kinds of charts appear
- Subscribers and users: streaming services, platforms, online services.
- Units and shipments: phones, computers, consoles, devices.
- Infrastructure: broadband lines, internet hosts, transistor counts, computing costs.
- Formats: products that peaked and disappeared, and a few that returned.
How scoring behaves on tech charts
The classic tech chart is an S-curve. Early on it looks exponential; later it looks flat. The hardest point to draw is the bend, which is exactly where the hidden window usually sits. A player who draws a straight line from the visible growth will overshoot; a player who draws an early plateau will undershoot.
The second classic shape is a decline after a period of leadership. A product with a dominant share does not lose it gradually because of one competitor; it loses it when the category itself changes. Look at the unit and title: a chart about a market's total size behaves differently from a chart about one company's share of it.
Drawing advice for tech charts
- Estimate how far through the S-curve the visible data is. Under 30% adoption usually means fast growth ahead; over 80% usually means slowing.
- Ask what the ceiling could be. A product used by most adults has little room left; a product used by specialists has a low ceiling.
- Declines are often steeper than rises once a format is replaced. Do not draw a soft landing if the category itself is disappearing.
- For subscriber and user charts, watch for the difference between growth slowing and growth stopping. The line usually flattens rather than falls.
- Read the cut-off year with the product cycle in mind — launches, platform changes and price moves cluster around hardware generations.
Why tech is a small but spicy category
Tech is roughly one chart in ten across the season. That is enough to keep the category sharp but not so much that the game becomes about knowing release dates. The charts are chosen for shape first: a bend, a plateau, a collapse, a surprise. A chart about an obscure product with a fascinating curve beats a chart about a famous product with a boring line.
For players, the category's lesson is calibration. We are used to thinking that technology always grows; the data is full of plateaus and deaths. Drawing a tech chart well means holding both ideas at once.